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Investigating the seller’s market during all these negative news – wow!

We have all seen it before: Expectations in an election year are often running high. Voters expect the new ( or the current ) POTUS will be a good sign for the economy in the coming months. No big deal in a NORMAL election year. I assume it’s safe to say we are NOT in a normal year at all. The stock market was supposed to crash ( it did for a short time ) – and the real estate values were supposed to drop with all the people losing their jobs and being desperate for money. Well: It didn’t happen. My last blog from August 16th already stated the obvious: The seller’s market was clearly visible. Today I went back to look if anything has changed or if it was confirmed. Let’s take a look:

August 16th vs. October 10th

All the numbers shown below are from August 16th 2020 and I compared them to the numbers on October 10th.

1st: Single family homes:

How to read the list:

  • Starting on the left chart you will find the data from August 16th, 2020
  • On the left side of this chart, you see all the cities this info come from
  • The next line show’s how many single-family homes are for sale right now in this particular city
  • The next line show’s how many homes have sold in each city within the last 120 days ( 4 months )
  • Divide this number by 4 and you get the OVERAL sale per month
  • In the last column on the left side, I checked how many sales really happened within the last 30 days

Now let’s move to the list on the right side:

  • I did exactly the same on October 10th
  • The result states: Right now we have 12.79% fewer homes for sale on the market but 21.84 more homes were sold within the last 4 months.
  • Compared month to month, we are pretty much at the same level as on August 16th
  • This could mean the demand has dropped. Let’s see

2nd: Appartments:

  • Today, there are 11.61% fewer Apartments on the market
  • But within the last 4 month, 27.03% more Apartments have sold
  • Compared month to month, 28.53 more Apartments have sold

Dig deeper: 3rd: Single family homes waterfront only:

  • 23.07% fewer waterfront homes are on the market right now
  • 32% more have been sold within the last 4 months
  • 12.54% more hones sold within the last 30 days

This is how it looks nationally:

Homes sold two weeks faster in September due to unusual surge in demand

Homebuyers hoping that a seasonal slowdown in the housing market would dampen rising prices can forget about it.

More buyers piled into the fray in September, spurred by record-low mortgage rates and a pandemic-induced stay-at-home culture, pushing sales to an even faster pace.

In the first read on September demand, homes sold 12 days faster than they did a year ago, according to realtor.com. Homes usually sell 25% faster in September than at the start of the year, but this year they sold 39% faster.

It took just 54 days to sell a home during the month. That is the shortest time since realtor.com began tracking this metric in 2016. Back then it took 78 days.

Regionally, properties in the Northeast spent 13 fewer days on the market than last year, while those in the South sold 11 days faster. In the Midwest it took nine fewer days to sell a home and seven fewer in the West. In the 50 largest metropolitan housing markets, the typical home sold in 44 days, 10 days faster than last year.

The competition is making bidding wars the rule rather than the exception. Typical buyers are paying about $20,000 more for a home and face 25% more competition than at the start of the year. Usually they face about 9% more competition.

The median price of a home sold in September was $350,000, up just over 11% annually. Some markets are seeing even steeper gains. Prices were up nearly 17% annually in Cincinnati, up 16% in Boston and up over 15% in Philadelphia.

The listings crunch is only getting worse, with supply down 39% annually. Compared with the start of this year, the number of listings was down 21%. September usually sees 17% more homes for sale than in January. Sellers are just not stepping up. There were nearly 14% fewer new listings compared with a year ago, an even steeper decline than August.

None of the largest 50 metros saw an increase in the number of homes on the market compared with last year and most (35 out of 50) saw a tougher supply crunch than in August. In some markets, like Kansas City, Missouri, Indianapolis, Indiana, and Memphis, Tennessee, the supply of homes for sale is half of what it was a year ago.

Summary for buyers:

Homebuyers ( like myself ) waiting for a bargain might need to look somewhere else for now. With the always working “Demand vs Supply” law it’s getting tougher by the minute to find these great deals. Although not everyone got the memo yet: In my research I also always check for “Withdrawn” properties in all these categories.

  • Single Family Homes: 786 homes withdrawn in August – 405 in October. That’s 48.47% fewer homes withdraws than before
  • Apartments: 219 withdrawn in August – 318 in October. That’s 45.21% more apartments withdrawn currently. Unless they all sold it private this does not fit the picture
  • pretty much the same numbers at waterfront homes and apartments

Summary for sellers:

Guys: What are you waiting for? Nobody will put a yard sign up for you saying “Put your property on the market NOW” You gotta come with this conclusion yourself. But once you do, you can rest assured it’s not gone take long to find a buyer. Or even multiple. Happens now all the time again. A bidding war between buyers. These are the good old times for sellers. If you want to cash out your home, now is the time to do it.

Call or email me any time if you like to get a free “Best Price Opinion” about your property. No obligation to sell – just to get you interested.. I hope to hear you soon

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